Muy pocos países en el mundo han llegado a tener en circulación billetes de tan alta denominación dentro de su cono monetario, y en todos la principal causa de ello es la hiperinflación, producto de muchos factores que han enfermado su economía principal. Venezuela es una de estas naciones; su Banco Central (BCV) anunció que a partir del 8 de marzo de 2021 tres nuevos billetes de: 200 mil, 500 mil y 1 millón de Bolívares entrarán en vigencia.
El anuncio tomó por sorpresa a muchos analistas y economistas locales, pues, desde hace varias semanas los funcionarios que mantienen el control del Banco Central de Venezuela venían anunciando que el país entraría en una fase de economía digital para el menudeo diario, o transacciones directas y pequeñas, con el objetivo, según sus declaraciones, de evitar las distorsiones que ha generado la utilización del dólar como una válvula de escape ante el desplome del Bolívar.
En tal sentido, se comenzaron a flexibilizar algunas restricciones como la factibilidad que la banca pública y privada permitiera abrir cuentas en dólares para así combatir el llamado “no hay vuelto”; pues, en Venezuela se transa actualmente con dólares de: 5, 10, 20, 50 y 100 dólares, en las principales ciudades, con la poca posibilidad de ofrecer cambios si el precio del producto, o servicio no cubre la denominación del billete.
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Consecuencias de una hiperinflación
En una dolarización de facto esta situación es previsible, pues, no hay reglas claras para la entrada en circulación de monedas o céntimos de dólar. Para tal fin, la idea gubernamental era pretender que el cambio se lograra con el pago digital; es decir, los ciudadanos compran dólares en la banca y le son depositados en sus cuentas de divisas para hacer pagos exactos en puntos de ventas habilitados. Sin embargo, la ecuación no ha tenido el efecto esperado dentro de los venezolanos.
Motivo por el cual, y aun cuando se estima que el efectivo en Bolívares está cubriendo menos del 20 % del mercado nacional, se pudo haber decidido integrar esta nueva camada de billetes de: 200 mil, 500 mil y 1 millón de Bolívares; cuya suma entre los 3 aún no logra pagar 1 dólar al cambio de la tasa oficial del BCV que se ubicó el lunes 8 de marzo de 2021 en 1.889.184,91 Bolívares por dólar.
Expertos financieros no logran argumentar esta medida, más allá de la preocupación que les genera una nueva impresión de billetes dentro de una economía con hiperinflación que no tiene suficiente respaldo ni confianza global. Para otros, esto sólo representa un “paño caliente” para tratar de frenar por un tiempo -de algún modo- la demanda del dólar con mayor circulación del Bolívar, y así minimizar el alza en la cotización diaria de la moneda estadounidense.
Los argumentos oficiales
El BCV -hasta la fecha de la redacción de este artículo- no ha ofrecido mayores detalles del porqué se decidió ampliar las especies del cono monetario. Un tuit desde la cuenta oficial del BCV el 5 de marzo de 2021 informó a los ciudadanos de la medida. En el portal web de la institución sólo se puede leer textualmente que “estos nuevos billetes vienen a completar y optimizar el actual cono monetario, para cumplir con los requerimientos de la economía nacional”.
La decisión sólo ha sido aplaudida por los actores económicos estatales, sin una explicación certera. Dejando sólo una estela de rumores, entre los cuales se resalta un posible aumento del salario mínimo en Venezuela las próximas semanas, que también incrementa directamente el sistema de pensiones; siendo los adultos mayores quienes demandan más el efectivo en Bolívares al hacer sus cobros en los bancos correspondientes.
Los puntos de vista
La crisis en Venezuela no borra su importancia internacional por ser una de las naciones con mayor potencia energética de petróleo y gas, aunque su producción esté en mínimo históricos. Desde las cúpulas del poder político se sigue debatiendo la retórica de los posibles efectos de las sanciones estadounidenses sobre algunos actores de la vida nacional, y activos de la estatal Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
Pero no hay datos concretos y auditables al respecto que sean contados como una causa de la hiperinflación. Este proceso lleva años acumulándose en el país, mucho antes de la entrada en vigencia de las primeras medidas que adoptaron las administraciones de Obama y Trump. De hecho, la llegada -cada día más- de productos importados al país podría restar importancia a esas aseveraciones oficiales.
La “economía del Bodegón” en hiperinflación
Los principales centros urbanos de Venezuela están llenándose de nuevas cadenas privadas de supermercados surtidos con productos internacionales principalmente, provenientes de Estados Unidos y países asiáticos como: Turquía. A estos establecimientos se les conoce como Bodegones. Ahí las ventas se hacen en dólares, aun cuando eso no está del todo reglamentado.
Estos bodegones se pueden hallar no sólo en zonas exclusivas, sino dentro de la periferia de las ciudades y pueblos; una situación que contrasta con los datos alarmantes sobre la capacidad del venezolano para adquirir la canasta básica mensual que se ubicó, según el Observatorio Venezolano de Finanzas (OVF) en 282 dólares en febrero de 2021, equivalente a 507.580.690,09 Bolívares. El salario mínimo del venezolano sólo cubriría el 0.47 % de la canasta al terminar de escribir este trabajo.
Venezuela podría estar experimentando una sub-economía sin parámetros legales internos y externos. El venezolano está mitigando la inflación estimada por el OVF en febrero de 50,9 % con una medición interanual de 4311 % a través de empleos subarrendados, con ganancias en dólares que no inciden en su sistema propio de prestaciones o beneficios contractuales; con una suerte de red comercializadora donde no hay reglas claras, pero que genera sumas de dinero para la manutención, o en la entrada de divisas a través de las remesas internacionales.
El consejo para los ciudadanos
En una situación así el mejor consejo económico es ahorrar en dólares por ser la moneda más fuerte del mercado. Eso ya lo comprende el venezolano. El problema es la materialización de ello, sin tener que ser controlado. Todo ciudadano en el mundo tiene el derecho de establecer su economía personal de forma autónoma dentro de las reglas financieras internacionales.
Por eso, en Airtm gozas de los beneficios de abrir una cuenta en dólares gratuitamente para operar con tus AirUSD digitalmente en 160 países. Además muchos negocios ya aceptan a Airtm como método de pago en Venezuela; pudiendo también hacer tus compras directas en nuestra tienda electrónica Directorio Airtm. Y si necesitas una tarjeta para hacer pagos online, en Airtm la obtienes -si quieres- tras registrarte en la plataforma. Para hacer el registro sólo debes hacer clic aquí.
No dejes de leer también: Por qué pagar con Airtm es mejor que usar Zelle o Bolívares en Venezuela
No hay una respuesta final sobre la economía venezolana y la hiperinflación, pero sí hay claves para superar los escollos propios ante esta situación de manera legal. Lo importante que debes tener en cuenta si estás en Venezuela es actuar con rapidez y trabajar con las herramientas que el mundo digital te ofrece.
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The other day, while I was at work, my sister stole my apple ipad and tested to see if it can survive a 30 foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now destroyed and she has 83 views. I know this is completely off topic but I had to share it with someone!
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